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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.